Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x57d4…97a4 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$10
crypto 14% +$1
other 5% $0
politics 1% −$20
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 56 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage523d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $64 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 01 $52 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will 32-35 people watch Trump inauguration? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 12 $25 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Mar 17 $5,093 −$10 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $64 63d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 93d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $69 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $73 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 148d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $75 150d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $76 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $45 242d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 274d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $52 274d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 302d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $52 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $28 333d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 364d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 394d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 395d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.81 · official $82.81 (match) · 121 history records