Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57d8…a490 weather 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (323 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$36 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day323.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$318
sports 24% +$427
weather 21% −$48
world 10% +$1
finance 8% −$47
politics 7% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (323 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +10.0% -0.5% 23% 19% -7.6%
≤30d 48 +10.0% -0.5% 23% 19% -7.6%
≤90d 48 +10.0% -0.5% 23% 19% -7.6%
all 48 +10.0% -0.5% 23% 19% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover323.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 19% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 19% -16.5%
15% -18.7% 17% -24.5%
20% -26.7% 17% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$14 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions39
Markets (closed)48 / 87
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day323.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 53¢ 52¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 42¢ 81¢ $21 $41 +$20 (+94%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals No 69¢ 62¢ $34 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Trippy Main Telecom vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage Trippy Main Telecom 54¢ 59¢ $27 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 57¢ 57¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Dplus (+1.5) Dplus 58¢ 50¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-14%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Oxuji Esports 43¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 76¢ 78¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? No 64¢ 62¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 45¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? No 55¢ 16¢ $28 $8 −$19 (-70%)
GV CD San José vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 4.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 49¢ 64¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+30%)
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage No 32¢ 12¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-62%)
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 20? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 19 $34 −$5 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$28 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 −$11 -25%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $24 −$13 -55%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $49 −$18 -38%
Armando González: 3+ goals + assists Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $13 +$37 +285%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 18 $66 −$21 -32%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 18 $100 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $134 −$7 -5%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $41 −$23 -56%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $57 −$45 -79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 18 $88 −$13 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? Jun 18 $102 −$41 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 18 $54 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$18 +100%
Will Algeria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 18 $26 −$10 -37%
Will Joao Cancelo join Barcelona? Jun 18 $94 −$53 -56%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $112 −$57 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -11%
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $125 −$15 -12%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Jun 18 $33 +$20 +60%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +33%
Jovo Lukić: 2+ goals Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $56 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$7 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 −$8 -26%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $40 +$37 +91%
Zeki Amdouni: 2+ assists Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$2 -7%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $69 +$179 +258%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $207 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $117 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $28 +$222 +792%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 21m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24m
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $3 25m
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 27m
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 50¢ $24 28m
Will 8+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $2 34m
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Dplus (+1.5) BUY Dplus 58¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
GV CD San José vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 1h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 56¢ $10 1h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 56¢ $18 1h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 67¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 44¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 56¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 59¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 59¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.94 · official $522.06 (match) · 327 history records