Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x57db…1033 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+9%) realized +$17 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1
other 40% +$15
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.2% +15.1% 100% 100% +8.7%
≤30d 2 +27.2% +15.1% 100% 100% +8.7%
≤90d 11 -22.8% -30.1% 45% 45% -2.5%
all 12 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 50% +5.1%
10% -31.9% 42% -5.0%
15% -38.5% 42% -14.2%
20% -44.5% 25% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage128d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $4 +$4 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-07? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $20 +$10 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 15d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 90¢ $25 15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 36d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 61d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 61d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 78d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $21 84d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 84d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 44¢ $5 84d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $5 84d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY DRX 26¢ $5 122d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 126d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 126d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 126d
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $5 126d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $2 126d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.58 · official $47.58 (match) · 44 history records