Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57dc…a126 other 28 markets active 446d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$3,073 (-32%) realized −$3,073 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 43% −$4,056
politics 29% −$2,373
other 29% +$3,356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 28 -3.9% -13.0% 25% 21% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 21% -38.7%
10% -21.3% 21% -44.5%
15% -28.9% 21% -49.9%
20% -35.9% 18% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -77% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$604 vs −$348 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,073
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage64d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $100 +$91 +92%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $200 +$72 +36%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $93 −$12 -13%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $300 −$173 -58%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $101 −$62 -62%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $22 +$66 +300%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? Feb 21 $508 +$3,193 +628%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? Feb 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025? Feb 16 $180 −$23 -12%
Will Kanye tweet between 250-299 times February 8-14? Feb 13 $6 $0 +5%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $370 −$64 -17%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $245 +$708 +290%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $203 −$37 -18%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $49 +$98 +200%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Feb 06 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? Feb 05 $653 −$653 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11? Feb 05 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? Feb 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $233 −$233 -100%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jan 23 $1,052 −$820 -78%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $4,063 −$4,056 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $57 446d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $102 446d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 446d
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $74 446d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 446d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 446d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 446d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $26 446d
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $198 446d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 447d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 447d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 447d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 13¢ $58 447d
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? SELL Yes $127 447d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? SELL Yes $39 447d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $1 448d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $5 448d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $69 448d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $24 448d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 448d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 448d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 448d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 448d
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 448d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $1 448d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $1 448d
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 448d
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $300 448d
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $200 448d
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7? BUY Yes $33 468d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records