Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57dd…8849 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 37% +$12
politics 14% +$2
tech 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 56 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -8.3%
10% -18.9% 4% -17.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage300d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $54 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $28 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $48 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $48 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $50 +$12 +25%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $2 $0 -26%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $4 $0 -6%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $3 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $2 $0 -5%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $53 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $54 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $27 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $22 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $6 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $55 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $48 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $55 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $50 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $24 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $24 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $6 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $47 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $53 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $34 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $35 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records