Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57de…20cb crypto 1249 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,601 (-4%) realized −$9,488 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate87%1089W / 159L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day96.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,503
7 days−$3,127
14 days−$6,971
30 days−$7,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,030
other 1% −$1,554
sports 0% −$688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 345 -4.7% -13.8% 86% 28% -13.5%
≤30d 1248 -4.0% -13.2% 87% 24% -12.1%
≤90d 1248 -4.0% -13.2% 87% 24% -12.1%
all 1248 -4.0% -13.2% 87% 24% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 24% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 7% -20.5%
15% -29.1% 2% -28.2%
20% -36.0% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$151 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$9,488
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1089 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1248 / 1249
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day96.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 97¢ 60¢ $300 $187 −$113 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $401 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $402 +$33 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$94 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $302 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $400 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $402 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $404 +$72 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $301 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $301 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $301 −$88 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $552 −$522 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $122 +$34 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $403 +$42 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.11 · official $153.09 · 3500 history records