Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57de…cd90
weather · 665 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$56 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$12,466
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses632 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$686
Open positions8
Markets (closed)667 / 665
Avg bet$1,953
Trades / day96.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 8 History 667 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,078
7 days+$2,170
14 days−$3,239
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 12? Up 100¢ 100¢ $10,869 $10,875 +$5 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $990 $994 +$4 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $315 $315 +$0 (+0%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 50¢ 19¢ $362 $136 −$226 (-62%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? No 84¢ 93¢ $84 $93 +$9 (+10%)
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? No 81¢ 92¢ $39 $45 +$5 (+14%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 50¢ 81¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 42¢ 0¢ $5,953 $0 −$5,953 (-100%)
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 15? Down 49¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on April 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 20? No 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25? Jun 12 $7 −$8 -116%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 15? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 25? Jun 12 $7 −$10 -138%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on April 25? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $401 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $112 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $150 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $46,845 +$290 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42,664 +$3,863 +9%
Spread: Knicks (-19.5) Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $429 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $944 +$1 +0%
1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $114 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $1,832 +$2 +0%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $178 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2,897 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $19,865 +$20 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $14,303 +$14 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,372 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $983 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in May? Jun 10 $198 $0 +0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in May? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 9? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 10 $155 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 10 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $1,783 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $672 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $21,987 +$22 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +145%
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 25°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $210 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $102 +$1 +1%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $330 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 59% +$3,396
sports 15% −$3,868
finance 13% +$198
other 8% +$341
crypto 3% +$54
world 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 100¢ $10,869 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $401 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $315 10h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $9,990 19h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $4,995 19h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $3,796 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 3¢ $3 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 5¢ $5 20h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $150 25h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 99¢ $27,914 25h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 100¢ $150 25h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $9 29h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $5 29h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $1 29h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $166 29h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $15 29h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $154 29h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $200 29h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $623 29h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $5 29h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $30 29h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $38 29h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $64 29h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $64 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 49¢ $2,413 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $114 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $33 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $46 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $2,324 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $379 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -5.0% -14.0% 92% 1% -8.8%
≤30d 667 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 667 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 2% -9.6%
all 667 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover96.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 1% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,466.22 · official $12,465.92 (match) · 3500 history records