Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57e0…03e6 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 411d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days−$14
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$7
other 21% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +53.1% +38.6% 100% 100% +38.6%
≤30d 8 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 8 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
all 12 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 58% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 58% -11.6%
10% -18.2% 50% -20.1%
15% -26.1% 33% -27.8%
20% -33.4% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$21 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

411d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage411d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $28 +$15 +53%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$40 +216%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $18 +$6 +31%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 08 $57 +$16 +28%
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance) May 07 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.53 · official $43.53 (match) · 21 history records