Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57e0…50b6 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+0%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$20
politics 31% −$14
sports 10% +$118
tech 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$2
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +4.2% -5.7% 10% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -14.7% 5% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×21.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage136d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $250 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $309 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $572 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 31 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $287 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $436 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $248 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $209 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $308 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $571 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $238 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $490 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $293 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $255 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $531 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 12d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 21d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 27d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $242 27d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $242 30d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $284 30d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $284 31d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $298 33d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $298 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $287 34d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $287 35d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $223 35d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $223 36d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 36d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 36d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $227 36d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $227 37d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 37d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.01 · official $86.01 (match) · 393 history records