Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57e1…c97f sports 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,677 (+8%) realized +$2,740 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%123W / 109L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$441est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$589
7 days+$1,320
14 days+$2,401
30 days+$2,401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,525
other 3% −$191
tech 0% +$15
world 0% −$11
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +8.1% -2.2% 53% 52% -4.2%
≤30d 229 +5.4% -4.7% 53% 52% -3.0%
≤90d 229 +5.4% -4.7% 53% 52% -3.0%
all 232 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 52% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 52% -3.0%
10% -14.2% 51% -12.3%
15% -22.5% 48% -20.8%
20% -30.1% 36% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$102 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$1,020
Realized+$2,740
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses123 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$441
Open positions9
Markets (closed)232 / 241
History coverage219d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner INOX Division 47¢ 100¢ $127 $271 +$144 (+113%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 62¢ $293 $238 −$55 (-19%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $66 $144 +$78 (+117%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 61¢ 60¢ $127 $124 −$3 (-2%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 56¢ $108 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 70¢ 100¢ $69 $98 +$29 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 44¢ 32¢ $51 $38 −$13 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 65¢ 0¢ $208 $0 −$208 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $52 +$50 +96%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $130 +$87 +67%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$69 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $93 −$92 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $133 +$83 +63%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 +$29 +129%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $201 +$65 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $89 +$68 +77%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $522 +$398 +76%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $123 +$114 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $317 −$313 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$107 +140%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $166 +$181 +109%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $170 +$101 +60%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $201 +$203 +101%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 +$87 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 −$78 -66%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $87 −$86 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $172 +$75 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$8 +124%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $166 −$2 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $123 −$122 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $75 +$2 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$119 +146%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $351 +$153 +44%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $89 +$84 +94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $341 −$336 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $89 −$11 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $166 −$163 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $233 +$111 +48%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$54 +53%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $188 +$138 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$155 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $355 +$331 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $128 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 47¢ $129 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $83 3h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 44¢ $52 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $295 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $127 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $69 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 25¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 45¢ $71 6h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 59¢ $130 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $93 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $34 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $52 9h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 46¢ $20 22h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $133 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 11¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $12 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 9¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 10¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $14 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $201 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 24h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $51 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $11 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $27 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $7 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $44 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,020.41 · official $978.52 · 507 history records