Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57ec…263a politics 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,394 (-1%) realized −$1,395 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,152per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$35
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$64
other 42% −$331
sports 8% −$1,011
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$17
crypto 1% +$3
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +2.8% -7.0% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 84 +0.9% -8.7% 7% 4% -10.3%
all 155 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.5% 10% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 8% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,417) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$785
Realized−$1,395
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,152
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $441 $441 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $342 $344 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2,161 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,726 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $7,584 −$9 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,951 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,322 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,169 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,212 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $70 +$68 +97%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,458 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $562 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,840 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,852 −$4 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $53 +$52 +97%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,010 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,661 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,355 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $72 +$65 +90%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,933 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,536 −$4 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,985 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,049 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,508 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $441 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $563 2h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $563 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $422 44h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $423 46h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $252 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $252 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $977 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $978 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $931 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $831 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $832 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $821 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $822 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $783 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $783 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $786 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $787 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $794 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $795 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $342 9d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 12d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,012 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.78 · official $784.78 (match) · 536 history records