Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57f0…c9ba crypto 578 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,103 (-7%) realized −$1,103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate84%483W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$19
14 days+$97
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +2.7% -7.1% 87% 84% -10.8%
≤30d 218 +6.4% -3.7% 89% 84% -6.6%
≤90d 578 -1.1% -10.5% 84% 71% -16.2%
all 578 -1.1% -10.5% 84% 71% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 71% -16.2%
10% -19.1% 18% -24.2%
15% -26.9% 3% -31.5%
20% -34.0% 2% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$35 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses483 / 95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)578 / 578
History coverage77d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 578 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$5 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$7 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$10 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$4 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$7 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $41 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $19 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.00 (match) · 1099 history records