Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57f1…4036 weather 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate84%84W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% +$37
other 18% −$40
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -25.3% -32.4% 69% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 36 -25.3% -32.4% 69% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 100 -9.5% -18.1% 84% 1% -9.5%
all 100 -9.5% -18.1% 84% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -9.5%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -33.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses84 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 92
History coverage66d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $221 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $281 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $557 +$30 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $254 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $426 +$10 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $140 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $405 −$148 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $155 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $251 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $249 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $244 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 22 Apr 23 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 22? Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 22? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $163 +$13 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? Apr 17 $325 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $177 +$13 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $331 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on April 17 Apr 17 $199 −$112 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 17? Apr 17 $121 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17? Apr 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? Apr 17 $321 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 16? Apr 17 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 16? Apr 17 $148 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $150 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $148 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $159 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $200 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $75 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records