Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57f3…a536 crypto 66 markets active 3d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-7%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$94
other 15% +$3
sports 8% $0
tech 5% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 35% -19.7%
≤30d 66 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 35% -19.2%
≤90d 66 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 35% -19.2%
all 66 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 35% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 35% -19.2%
10% -32.1% 21% -26.9%
15% -38.7% 17% -34.0%
20% -44.7% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage19d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 72¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 14¢ $2 4d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 14¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $19 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records