Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x57f5…c1c9 politics 1620 markets active 10h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$121 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%122W / 1000L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$139
14 days−$178
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$136
other 22% +$347
crypto 17% +$753
sports 14% −$259
tech 6% −$84
finance 3% +$28
culture 2% −$38
weather 2% −$42
world 1% +$68
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +134.7% +112.3% 28% 28% +103.9%
≤30d 704 +30.2% +17.8% 13% 13% +17.6%
≤90d 1122 +9.1% -1.3% 11% 11% -1.4%
all 1122 +9.1% -1.3% 11% 11% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 11% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 11% -10.9%
15% -19.4% 11% -19.5%
20% -27.3% 11% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$2 · ×11.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,002
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses122 / 1000
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions500
Markets (closed)1122 / 1620
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 1122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 12¢ 87¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+603%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 74¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+577%)
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 12¢ 90¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+646%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 11¢ 66¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+500%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 11¢ 66¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+500%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 66¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+454%)
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? No 9¢ 50¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+450%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 61¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+408%)
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? No 13¢ 64¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+396%)
FDA approves Arcalyst technology transfer? No 12¢ 59¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+392%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 52¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+337%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 12¢ 55¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+339%)
Will George Pickens play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27? No 13¢ 52¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+319%)
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? No 6¢ 26¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+318%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June? No 6¢ 24¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+275%)
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 11¢ 41¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+273%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 44¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+271%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? No 5¢ 14¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+189%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of June? No 10¢ 27¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+170%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B? No 5¢ 12¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+147%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 24¢ 56¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+133%)
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 10¢ 7¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-27%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 15¢ 32¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+113%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $2 +$28 +1375%
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 27 $1 +$4 +689%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 27 $2 +$16 +796%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $2 +$15 +715%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Jun 26 $2 +$15 +708%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 25 $2 +$13 +647%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $2 +$13 +647%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? Jun 25 $2 +$13 +641%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Jun 25 $2 +$16 +778%
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 +$14 +671%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +102%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 2¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 2¢ $0 11h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-18 House seat? BUY No 8¢ $2 11h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 91¢ $30 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 1¢ $2 15h
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? BUY No 10¢ $2 15h
Will Michael Minogue win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican pr BUY No 10¢ $2 15h
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic prim BUY No 9¢ $2 15h
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? BUY No 11¢ $2 16h
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 91¢ $5 20h
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 11¢ $1 25h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY No 12¢ $2 27h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $19 27h
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat? BUY No 13¢ $2 32h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-17 House seat? BUY No 13¢ $2 32h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-03 House seat? BUY No 13¢ $2 32h
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat? BUY No 13¢ $2 32h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $17 33h
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? BUY No 7¢ $2 35h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? SELL No 92¢ $17 42h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY No 1¢ $2 45h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 93¢ $8 2d
Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat? BUY No 14¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL No 92¢ $15 2d
Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat? BUY No 9¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $15 2d
Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat? BUY No 11¢ $2 2d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $2 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? SELL No 91¢ $18 2d
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? BUY No 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.52 · official $1,003.70 (match) · 3500 history records