Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57fb…fd63 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$4
other 22% +$1
crypto 5% −$12
politics 5% +$3
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 39 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage402d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $41 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $46 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $42 +$2 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 -18%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $56 −$12 -21%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 18 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $36 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $43 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $4 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $18 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $46 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records