Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57fe…13c1 sports 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,178 (-8%) realized −$4,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%239W / 261L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$551est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$109
14 days+$95
30 days−$1,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,743
crypto 16% −$1,161
other 10% −$817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 60% +12.1%
≤30d 83 -24.8% -31.9% 35% 34% -20.8%
≤90d 365 -32.1% -38.6% 37% 32% -25.1%
all 500 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 39% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 39% -18.2%
10% -30.6% 32% -26.0%
15% -37.3% 24% -33.2%
20% -43.5% 17% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$61 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses239 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$551
Open positions1
Markets (closed)500 / 502
History coverage114d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 33¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $186 +$168 +90%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $111 −$110 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $71 +$71 +100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $60 +$11 +18%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $14 −$10 -69%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $128 −$126 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $118 +$10 +9%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $142 −$100 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-6.5) Jun 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 08 $57 −$57 -100%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $94 −$94 -100%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Yufei Ren Jun 08 $362 +$218 +60%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $114 +$106 +93%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $470 −$463 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $65 +$30 +46%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 07 $17 +$47 +273%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 07 $28 −$12 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$2 -24%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 07 $59 −$56 -96%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 07 $170 −$111 -66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $448 −$133 -30%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $95 +$86 +91%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 06 $205 −$111 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $69 +$37 +53%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 06 $32 +$37 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $19 +$14 +75%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 06 $21 −$3 -13%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $65 −$43 -67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $325 −$266 -82%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 06 $378 +$160 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$24 +115%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 05 $190 −$146 -77%
ITF Focsani: Sophie Greiner vs Alexia Ioana Tatu Jun 05 $423 +$373 +88%
ITF Focsani: Ana Ioana Varsa vs Anastasia Safta Jun 05 $67 −$43 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Wuning: Peangtarn Plipuech vs Hina Inoue Jun 05 $642 −$280 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $402 +$314 +78%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $1,122 −$184 -16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $195 −$28 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato SELL Maximo Zeitune 67¢ $353 54m
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato BUY Maximo Zeitune 34¢ $186 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $185 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $225 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 70¢ $111 33h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 17¢ $31 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL Atlanta Braves 72¢ $142 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 35¢ $71 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 55¢ $71 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $60 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY 10¢ $51 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 31¢ $5 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 12¢ $4 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $14 7d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato BUY Lisa Pigato 44¢ $128 17d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 72¢ $128 17d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $118 17d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 17¢ $102 17d
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 100¢ $220 17d
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 51¢ $114 17d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Harriet Dart 57¢ $114 17d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Harriet Dart 19¢ $38 17d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Harriet Dart 15¢ $1 17d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 48¢ $470 17d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $94 18d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Milwaukee Brewers 86¢ $94 18d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $65 18d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 91¢ $65 18d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 24¢ $17 18d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ $17 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 1436 history records