Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5800…dd18 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized +$44 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$50
sports 21% −$70
crypto 15% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.4% -42.4% 40% 40% -19.7%
≤30d 5 -36.4% -42.4% 40% 40% -19.7%
≤90d 5 -36.4% -42.4% 40% 40% -19.7%
all 5 -36.4% -42.4% 40% 40% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 40% -19.7%
10% -48.0% 40% -27.3%
15% -53.0% 40% -34.4%
20% -57.6% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 28¢ $110 $47 −$63 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.32 · official $96.34 (match) · 9 history records