Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
58 0x5802…0aed crypto 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+1%) realized +$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate73%417W / 154L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$65
14 days−$64
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$1
world 23% −$362
other 9% +$180
finance 8% +$208
tech 3% +$41
politics 1% +$19
sports 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 40% -5.7%
≤30d 27 -23.1% -30.5% 56% 33% -8.7%
≤90d 571 +1.4% -8.3% 73% 29% -9.0%
all 571 +1.4% -8.3% 73% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 29% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 18% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 12% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses417 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)571 / 571
History coverage64d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 571 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $498 +$41 +8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $106 +$23 +22%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $81 +$19 +23%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 +$19 +74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $678 +$99 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $497 +$181 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $640 −$332 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $167 +$23 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $165 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $756 +$157 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $133 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $132 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $256 −$124 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $692 +$65 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $641 +$51 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $21 −$12 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $83 +$3 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $42 +$41 +99%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $148 +$45 +31%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $340 −$168 -50%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 14 $191 +$19 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $739 +$54 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $370 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 08 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 08 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 07 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 07 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 07 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 07 $17 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $538 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $76 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $317 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $100 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 80¢ $81 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $46 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1454 history records