Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5802…60e3 other 31 markets active 3h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 33% −$1
politics 10% $0
crypto 5% +$2
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.8% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -0.4% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage382d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 −$3 -20%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $4 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $31 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $35 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $35 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $12 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $10 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $10 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $3 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records