Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5809…9868 sports 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27,697 (-13%) realized −$24,176 · open −$3,521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%181W / 387L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day105.6pace
Fees−$3,199est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6,570
other 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+67.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 +108.7% +88.8% 28% 27% -66.1%
≤30d 555 +87.2% +69.4% 31% 30% -43.9%
≤90d 568 +85.5% +67.8% 32% 30% -42.6%
all 568 +85.5% +67.8% 32% 30% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +67.8% 30% -42.6%
10% +51.7% 28% -48.1%
15% ← realistic here +37.1% 26% -53.1%
20% +23.6% 22% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$787) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +179% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$509 vs −$529 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,279
Realized−$24,176
Unrealized−$3,521
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses181 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$3,199
Open positions6
Markets (closed)568 / 231
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$959
Trades / day105.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ 100¢ $287 $2,095 +$1,808 (+630%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 34¢ $165 $172 +$7 (+5%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 19¢ 0¢ $2,262 $6 −$2,256 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ 0¢ $1,900 $4 −$1,897 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ 0¢ $709 $1 −$708 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $477 $1 −$476 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $576 −$569 -99%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$290 +58881%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $167 −$194 -116%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 17 $422 −$414 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $598 −$598 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 17 $647 −$559 -86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $66 +$89 +134%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $741 −$516 -70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,158 −$723 -62%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $608 −$608 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $180 +$101 +56%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $923 −$923 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 17 $861 −$861 -100%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs Otakar Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Ph Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $903 −$559 -62%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $403 −$403 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $700 −$668 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $867 −$741 -86%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP R Jun 17 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $170 +$70 +41%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $923 −$923 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,133 −$2,114 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $763 −$763 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $115 +$86 +75%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $210 −$204 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$659 +814%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$1,233 +8272%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $46 +$565 +1235%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $17 +$185 +1071%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $132 +$37 +28%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $659 −$566 -86%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $593 −$195 -33%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $361 −$361 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $438 −$438 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $115 −$11 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $192 +$25 +13%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winne Jun 17 $353 −$353 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO5) Jun 17 $344 −$344 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $123 +$1,911 +1549%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$82 +3842%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,430 −$1,430 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $24 19m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $0 19m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $3 19m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $137 20m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $18 26m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $520 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $32 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $122 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $3 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $24 31m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $2,094 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $315 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 22¢ $385 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $607 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $90 45m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $13 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $49 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 16¢ $41 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $31 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $85 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $175 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,279.02 · official $2,279.07 (match) · 3500 history records