Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x580d…8c26 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$687 (-1%) realized −$687 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%76W / 8L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$14
14 days+$31
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$103
politics 22% +$25
crypto 10% +$6
sports 7% −$833
tech 2% +$2
world 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 63 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 84 -5.8% -14.7% 90% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 2% -10.6%
10% -22.9% 1% -19.2%
15% -30.3% 1% -27.0%
20% -37.2% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$313 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$2,200
Realized−$687
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses76 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage217d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,200 $2,200 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,577 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $486 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June Jun 21 $259 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2,301 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,300 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? Jun 15 $800 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 15 $1,501 +$14 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $1,500 +$1 +0%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $734 +$1 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $99 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $2,300 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? May 25 $595 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 25 $2,203 +$51 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $589 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,600 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 11 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 11 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on day 4? May 07 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May May 07 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in May 2026? May 05 $2,200 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Apr 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $500 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 27 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $1,600 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 21 $162 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Apr 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Apr 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 16 $1,100 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Apr 13 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 11 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 56 million views on day 3? Apr 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 08 $1,954 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr Apr 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 05 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2,200 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $489 34h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June SELL No 100¢ $261 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $486 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $1,577 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 99¢ $259 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,280 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,301 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $357 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $350 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $649 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $947 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,300 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 99¢ $1,501 21d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $800 22d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 24d
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $734 24d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $2,000 24d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,300 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,300 29d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 98¢ $2,203 36d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $95 36d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? SELL No 100¢ $80 36d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? SELL No 100¢ $69 36d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? SELL No 100¢ $21 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,200.00 · official $2,200.00 (match) · 207 history records