Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x580f…8000 world 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 25% $0
sports 21% −$7
politics 11% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.2% +5.1% 20% 10% -9.0%
≤30d 33 +4.2% -5.8% 27% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 41 +3.3% -6.6% 27% 2% -9.6%
all 62 +1.6% -8.0% 24% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 47
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage334d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $41 $39 −$3 (-7%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $173 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +168%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $91 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $182 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $91 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $83 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $91 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $241 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $190 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $87 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $179 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $91 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $37 +$2 +7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $84 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $16 −$4 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $182 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $72 −$4 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $72 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $229 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $578 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $578 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $611 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $199 −$5 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $92 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 22 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $83 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $5 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $44 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $35 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $30 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $4 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $51 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $85 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $87 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $52 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $35 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $65 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $23 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $78 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $78 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $30 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $91 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $91 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.92 · official $41.46 (match) · 253 history records