Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5819…f62a other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$93
finance 28% +$49
world 16% −$20
crypto 10% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +13.9% +3.0% 29% 29% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 29% -4.7%
10% -6.8% 29% -13.8%
15% -15.8% 29% -22.1%
20% -24.1% 29% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$31 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage217d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 16¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Jan 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in January? Jan 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? Dec 30 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 25 $30 +$89 +297%
Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025? Nov 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 14 $25 +$75 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 134d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in January? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 144d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 166d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 166d
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 178d
Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.74 · official $39.74 (match) · 12 history records