trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +4.4% | -5.6% | 100% | 0% | -5.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 67% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 83% | 0% | -8.6% |
| all | 14 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 86% | 0% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 0% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -16.9% | 0% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $48 | $48 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? | Jun 17 | $24 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 22 | $24 | $0 | -1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 19 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 17 | $25 | $0 | -2% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | May 15 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 13 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 13 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 13 | $17 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of | Apr 29 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 29 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? | Mar 29 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Feb 06 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $210 in January? | Feb 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |