Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x581a…0afb sports 40 markets active 5d ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$200 (+16%) realized +$199 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$484
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +138.1% +115.5% 50% 50% +218.7%
≤30d 3 +58.8% +43.6% 33% 33% +84.3%
≤90d 4 +19.1% +7.7% 25% 25% +41.6%
all 38 +13.8% +3.0% 39% 39% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 39% +5.2%
10% -6.9% 39% -4.9%
15% -15.9% 39% -14.0%
20% -24.1% 37% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$32 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage192d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $142 +$534 +376%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $142 −$140 -98%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 05 $40 −$30 -75%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Suns Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jan 29 $20 +$40 +199%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jan 24 $10 +$19 +194%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 24 $10 +$32 +317%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $10 +$49 +492%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $30 +$31 +105%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $10 +$20 +203%
Celtics vs. Heat Jan 16 $10 +$8 +80%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 16 $40 +$45 +112%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 12 $10 +$35 +354%
Heat vs. Thunder Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Suns Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 06 $40 −$40 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Kings Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 02 $10 +$15 +149%
Nuggets vs. Raptors Jan 01 $30 +$30 +100%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $50 +$28 +56%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Dec 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 26 $80 +$41 +52%
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? Dec 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $231 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $102 7d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $445 10d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 72d
Clippers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 28¢ $20 124d
Clippers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 61¢ $50 124d
Hornets vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 34¢ $20 130d
Hornets vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 34¢ $10 130d
Nuggets vs. Knicks BUY Nuggets 25¢ $10 131d
Nuggets vs. Knicks BUY Nuggets 45¢ $10 131d
Nuggets vs. Knicks BUY Nuggets 42¢ $10 131d
Nuggets vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 58¢ $10 131d
Nuggets vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 56¢ $10 131d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 131d
Nuggets vs. Pistons BUY Nuggets 11¢ $10 132d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $10 133d
Pistons vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 18¢ $10 136d
Pistons vs. Suns BUY Pistons 17¢ $10 137d
Knicks vs. Raptors SELL Knicks 85¢ $60 138d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 25¢ $10 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.96 · official $50.96 (match) · 85 history records