Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
58 0x581a…70cf other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$12
politics 20% −$4
sports 6% −$53
economics 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -9.1% -17.7% 11% 7% -9.9%
all 100 -9.1% -17.7% 11% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 7% -9.9%
10% -25.6% 7% -18.5%
15% -32.8% 7% -26.4%
20% -39.4% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage86d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 15 $413 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $413 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $215 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $200 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $434 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $212 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $422 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $437 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $390 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $407 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $417 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $141 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 22d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $41 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 27d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $93 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $210 33d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $210 33d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $212 35d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $212 35d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 35d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 35d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 36d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.82 · official $192.82 (match) · 255 history records