Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x581c…e28a world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%32W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1
other 22% −$9
politics 13% +$2
sports 11% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 74 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 3% -9.4%
all 78 -0.6% -10.1% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses32 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage532d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $75 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $70 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $72 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $39 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $69 −$2 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $94 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $117 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $36 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $16 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $31 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.69 · official $37.15 (match) · 310 history records