Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x581e…088d world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$4
other 30% −$9
politics 4% −$1
finance 4% −$2
sports 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.1% -6.8% 25% 12% -8.9%
≤30d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 6% -9.7%
all 60 -1.9% -11.2% 43% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 12% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 10% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage529d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $63 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $156 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 −$1 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $73 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $114 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $286 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $543 −$3 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 12 $257 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 24 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 28 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $35 $0 -1%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $35 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $36 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $9 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.49 · official $32.58 (match) · 207 history records