Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x581e…bdea weather 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,046 (+6%) realized +$4,046 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate81%127W / 29L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$243
14 days−$224
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$147
politics 6% +$4,119
other 0% +$75
crypto 0% −$12
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.7% -12.9% 89% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 38 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 130 -9.3% -17.9% 85% 5% -10.0%
all 156 -3.9% -13.0% 81% 8% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 8% -3.9%
10% -21.4% 7% -13.1%
15% -29.0% 7% -21.5%
20% -35.9% 7% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$643) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$31 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.43 per $1 lost it wins $5.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized+$4,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses127 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage146d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $443 $443 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $701 −$261 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? Jun 21 $682 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? Jun 20 $686 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 19 $573 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $687 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $675 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $596 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $665 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $665 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $653 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $492 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $549 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $149 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $594 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $600 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $594 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $633 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $177 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 03 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? Jun 02 $482 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $500 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $615 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 31? May 30 $611 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $791 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $580 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $578 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $580 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 26? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $575 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 24? May 24 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $399 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $124 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 23? May 23 $470 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $528 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21? May 21 $416 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 18? May 21 $553 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17? May 17 $550 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $547 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $443 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 39¢ $118 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 60¢ $53 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 84¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 84¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 84¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 84¢ $42 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 84¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 84¢ $56 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $43 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $377 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $67 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $128 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $129 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $73 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $73 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $216 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $215 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $684 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $677 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $689 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $259 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $427 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.00 · official $443.00 (match) · 1244 history records