Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x581f…9d8e sports 981 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,158 (+4%) realized +$7,158 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%514W / 467L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1,799est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,068
7 days+$4,756
14 days+$3,605
30 days+$5,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,676
other 9% +$6,028
crypto 1% +$928
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 49% +1.5%
≤30d 391 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 48% -5.6%
≤90d 571 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 48% -5.2%
all 981 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 48% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -7.2%
10% -21.2% 43% -16.1%
15% -28.8% 36% -24.2%
20% -35.8% 30% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$145 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses514 / 467
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,799
Open positions0
Markets (closed)981 / 981
History coverage107d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 981 Trades
no open positions (321 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,899 +$48 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$7 +101%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,670 +$3,460 +207%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,379 +$928 +67%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$11 +40%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $167 +$43 +26%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 14 $19 +$17 +86%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $684 −$668 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +188%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 14 $45 +$43 +97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$21 +60%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 +$82 +60%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 +$52 +36%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$298 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,614 +$769 +48%
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,229 −$1,210 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $376 −$372 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $976 +$1,421 +146%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,823 +$791 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $769 +$1,165 +152%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $270 −$265 -98%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 +$27 +52%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $132 +$227 +172%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $117 +$83 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,836 +$1,930 +105%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $576 +$305 +53%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $605 −$593 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$4 -22%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $145 −$143 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $973 +$105 +11%
Will IFK Mariehamn win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $413 −$373 -90%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 70¢ $1,946 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $1,899 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 49¢ $6 5h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 33¢ $49 6h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $606 6h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $961 6h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $11 6h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 29¢ $42 6h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 68¢ $10 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2,307 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 59¢ $1,379 25h
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $167 25h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $28 25h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 85¢ $3 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 53¢ $19 26h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 21¢ $684 26h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 37¢ $1 26h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 83¢ $7 27h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 41¢ $21 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 27h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 59¢ $6 28h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY No 50¢ $45 28h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $66 28h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 63¢ $15 29h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 54¢ $24 29h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 21¢ $53 29h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 20¢ $306 30h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 18¢ $30 30h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $2,383 30h
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2082 history records