Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5820…b6f6 sports 921 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$667 (-6%) realized −$626 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%391W / 526L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$235
14 days−$100
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$111
other 19% −$195
crypto 18% −$354
world 11% −$369
politics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$30
finance 0% −$4
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 42% -20.8%
≤30d 155 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 46% -14.3%
≤90d 612 -5.3% -14.3% 43% 42% -14.0%
all 917 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 42% -16.4%
10% -22.9% 40% -24.4%
15% -30.4% 39% -31.7%
20% -37.2% 36% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$626
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses391 / 526
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions4
Markets (closed)917 / 921
History coverage117d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair Laura Mair 59¢ 56¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-5%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Lana Virc 48¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +96%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $20 −$17 -83%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $30 +$17 +55%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $30 +$26 +85%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $25 +$20 +79%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $24 +$17 +73%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $24 +$18 +76%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $36 +$12 +34%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $15 +$10 +66%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $18 +$12 +64%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $15 +$10 +66%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $30 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$45 -86%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $16 −$14 -90%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $30 −$2 -5%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $26 +$24 +90%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $25 +$14 +56%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20 −$16 -80%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair BUY Laura Mair 58¢ $6 10m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 34¢ $1 24m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 27¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 34m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo SELL Daria Zelinskaya $4 35m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 50¢ $4 1h
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair SELL Laura Mair 54¢ $5 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 52¢ $27 1h
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair BUY Laura Mair 59¢ $20 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 50¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 12h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 64¢ $30 19h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 45¢ $25 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $43.11 (match) · 1869 history records