Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5822…8dbe crypto 394 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-3%) realized −$245 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%191W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$542
7 days+$538
14 days+$457
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$338
sports 20% −$90
other 3% +$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +15.8% +4.8% 60% 57% +4.9%
≤30d 190 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 48% -2.7%
≤90d 392 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 45% -10.8%
all 392 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 45% -10.8%
10% -21.0% 41% -19.3%
15% -28.7% 37% -27.1%
20% -35.7% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses191 / 201
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)392 / 394
History coverage77d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $125 +$28 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$49 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$39 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $134 +$73 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$53 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$35 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$55 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$89 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$39 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$37 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$118 +576%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +44%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$12 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $153 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $73 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $270 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $67 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $93 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $11.59 · 786 history records