Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x5823…8782 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$447 (-25%) realized −$352 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-77.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -74.9% -77.3% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤30d 3 -74.9% -77.3% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤90d 3 -74.9% -77.3% 0% 0% -56.3%
all 3 -74.9% -77.3% 0% 0% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.3% 0% -56.3%
10% -79.5% 0% -60.5%
15% -81.5% 0% -64.3%
20% -83.3% 0% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$135 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$852
Realized−$352
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $392 $384 −$8 (-2%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $363 $287 −$76 (-21%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $92 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $96 $89 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $500 −$124 -25%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $150 −$145 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $141 −$136 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $376 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 6¢ $376 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $500 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 13¢ $141 31h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $852.15 · official $852.15 (match) · 9 history records