Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

58 0x5824…8e3f other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$482 (+8%) realized +$416 · open +$66

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +138% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +107% what you keep after slip

Net edge+107%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate87%13W / 2L

Drawdown53%max

Avg bet$337per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$866now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$149

7 days+$441

14 days+$441

30 days+$441

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+115.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+138.3%	+115.6%	87%	60%	-2.0%
≤30d	15	+138.3%	+115.6%	87%	60%	-2.0%
≤90d	15	+138.3%	+115.6%	87%	60%	-2.0%
all	15	+138.3%	+115.6%	87%	60%	-2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+115.6%	60%	-2.0%
10%	+95.0%	33%	-11.4%
15%	+76.2%	13%	-19.9%
20%	+58.9%	13%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

31% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +138% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late +257% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$230 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$866

Realized+$416

Unrealized+$66

Win rate (resolved)87%

Wins / losses13 / 2

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage7d

Avg bet$337

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown53%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	90¢	100¢	$300	$332	+$32 (+11%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	No	87¢	86¢	$300	$295	−$5 (-2%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Over	83¢	100¢	$200	$239	+$39 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$203	+$171	+84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$302	−$300	-100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$302	+$73	+24%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	Jun 15	$401	+$38	+10%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 14	$602	+$56	+9%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$302	+$61	+20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$503	+$100	+20%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	Jun 14	$216	+$18	+8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$502	+$92	+18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$502	−$160	-32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$504	+$154	+31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 12	$302	+$73	+24%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	Jun 12	$261	+$33	+13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$261	+$28	+11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Jun 10	$100	+$3	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	90¢	$301	1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	83¢	$201	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	87¢	$301	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$203	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	83¢	$302	4h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	91¢	$401	22h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	80¢	$302	22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Netherlands	100¢	$658	22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	91¢	$602	24h
Germany leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$361	26h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	83¢	$302	27h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	BUY Under	92¢	$216	43h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	83¢	$503	43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$595	43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	84¢	$502	47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	96¢	$200	47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	94¢	$339	47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	83¢	$302	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	76¢	$504	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$375	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	80¢	$302	3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	BUY Czechia	85¢	$261	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$289	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	86¢	$261	4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY Yes	97¢	$100	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $866.22 · official $700.73 · 33 history records