Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
58 0x5828…ef53 politics 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,425 (+44%) realized +$4,419 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$843per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3,176
politics 25% −$30
crypto 23% +$1,268
other 10% +$2
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +10.7% +0.2% 100% 100% +0.2%
≤90d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 20% -9.7%
all 11 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 27% +32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 27% +32.5%
10% -7.5% 18% +19.8%
15% -16.4% 18% +8.2%
20% -24.6% 18% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$890 vs −$9 · ×98.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×123.1 per $1 lost it wins $123.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized+$4,419
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage149d
Avg bet$843
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $606 $612 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $240 +$26 +11%
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 23 $608 −$20 -3%
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliame May 15 $398 −$6 -2%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $355 −$5 -1%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $149 +$2 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $578 −$6 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $807 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 04 $86 +$3 +3%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026? Feb 10 $3,850 +$3,150 +82%
XRP Up or Down on January 24? Jan 25 $2,354 +$1,268 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $606 1h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 16d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $45 17d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $49 17d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $60 17d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $57 17d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $52 17d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $42 24d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 24d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 24d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 24d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 24d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 22¢ $131 30d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 22¢ $120 30d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 22¢ $105 30d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 22¢ $92 30d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 22¢ $117 30d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $95 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $109 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $135 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $122 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $124 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 35d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 35d
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliame SELL No 80¢ $391 38d
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliame BUY No 80¢ $398 41d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 69¢ $351 51d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 69¢ $355 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.46 · official $612.46 (match) · 60 history records