Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x582a…d6b2
crypto · 62 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$43 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)44 / 62
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 18 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +198%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +181%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$19
tech 5% −$14
other 5% −$6
world 2% −$1
sports 1% +$1
politics 2% −$4
weather 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 40m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 42m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 51m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 1¢ $1 10h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 2¢ $1 10h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $1 10h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 2¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 39% -19.5%
≤30d 44 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 44 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 39% -19.5%
all 44 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 39% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 39% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 36% -27.2%
15% -40.4% 34% -34.2%
20% -46.3% 25% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.68 · official $3.68 (match) · 113 history records