Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x582b…d4e2 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$109 (-6%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$258
14 days+$258
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$276
crypto 25% −$45
world 18% −$27
other 13% −$79
tech 4% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -12.6% -21.0% 33% 33% +20.4%
≤30d 3 -12.6% -21.0% 33% 33% +20.4%
≤90d 24 -36.3% -42.4% 21% 17% -1.4%
all 24 -36.3% -42.4% 21% 17% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 17% -1.4%
10% -47.9% 17% -10.9%
15% -52.9% 17% -19.5%
20% -57.5% 8% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$16 · ×5.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage57d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $702 +$298 +42%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 24 $23 −$3 -12%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Jun 24 $55 −$38 -69%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $325 −$27 -8%
Will Google reach $355 in April? Apr 29 $67 +$33 +50%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Div Apr 29 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9AM ET Apr 29 $39 +$34 +88%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$1 -25%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $77 −$1 -1%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $53 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 29 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET Apr 29 $80 −$32 -40%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET Apr 29 $42 −$40 -96%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5AM ET Apr 29 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5AM ET Apr 29 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4AM ET Apr 29 $42 −$5 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $75 −$71 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1PM ET Apr 29 $98 +$102 +105%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 28 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 70¢ $516 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 70¢ $186 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $298 47d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $69 47d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $7 47d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $9 47d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 47d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $195 47d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $25 47d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Div BUY Zero Tenacity 13¢ $11 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? BUY Up 81¢ $25 56d
Will Google reach $355 in April? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $73 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $39 56d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 56d
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 56d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 77¢ $76 56d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $77 56d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 49¢ $47 56d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 51¢ $53 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 56d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 13¢ $9 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 56d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 56d
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $35 56d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records