Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x582d…349c other 11 markets active 21h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,577 (-46%) realized −$1,426 · open −$151
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$1,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$1,643
sports 6% −$151
other 1% $0
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -84.6%
≤30d 3 -51.8% -56.4% 33% 33% -98.9%
≤90d 5 -46.7% -51.8% 40% 40% -92.9%
all 5 -46.7% -51.8% 40% 40% -92.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 40% -92.9%
10% -56.4% 20% -93.6%
15% -60.6% 20% -94.2%
20% -64.5% 0% -94.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$560 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$1,426
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage64d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $110 $59 −$51 (-47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ $94 $3 −$91 (-96%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 02 $1,582 −$1,566 -99%
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? Apr 18 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 12¢ $10 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 16¢ $52 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 30¢ $11 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $38 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $31 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 40¢ $200 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 51¢ $184 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $153 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 32¢ $325 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 30¢ $10 10d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $113 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $515 15d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $16 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 36¢ $353 30d
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $122 60d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 63d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 64d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 64d
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.17 · official $91.17 (match) · 45 history records