Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x582d…edd6 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$5
other 25% +$6
crypto 14% $0
tech 10% −$1
sports 9% +$4
finance 7% +$6
world 7% −$10
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 29 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 10% -9.5%
all 37 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage143d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $185 $185 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 14 $43 +$7 +15%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $100 −$1 -1%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $190 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 26 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? May 25 $186 +$1 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 22 $195 −$1 -0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $186 +$1 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 20 $198 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $166 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $132 +$4 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 08 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 26 $193 $0 +0%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? Mar 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Super Bowl LX have at least 140M viewers? Feb 12 $110 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 10 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 04 $198 −$1 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 04 $195 +$1 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 03 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $185 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $194 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $195 7d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 9d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $99 20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $100 26d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 96¢ $190 28d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY No 96¢ $190 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 99¢ $193 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $193 28d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $190 28d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $190 28d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $195 28d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $195 28d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $187 28d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $151 30d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $7 30d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $5 30d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $5 31d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $18 31d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $194 31d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $196 31d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $194 31d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $195 32d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $64 32d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 32d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 32d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $116 32d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $195 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.91 · official $184.91 (match) · 143 history records