Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x582e…1f4c other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%124W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$14
14 days−$35
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$54
politics 21% +$1
world 12% +$7
sports 12% +$47
tech 4% −$21
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$11
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +12.6% +1.9% 33% 31% -15.2%
≤30d 121 +4.9% -5.1% 41% 39% -5.9%
≤90d 244 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 33% -10.1%
all 245 -3.4% -12.6% 51% 33% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 33% -10.0%
10% -20.9% 31% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 25% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 23% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses124 / 121
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)245 / 260
History coverage162d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $5 +$27 +528%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +158%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 −$10 -75%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -6%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -62%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +455%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $43 −$26 -61%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -49%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal BUY 1¢ $9 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $5 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $5 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 10h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $5 19h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 22h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $3 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $22 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $5 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL 20¢ $5 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 23¢ $5 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.44 · official $109.08 · 632 history records