Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5831…3c12 crypto 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate60%222W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day156.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$356
7 days−$293
14 days−$318
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$68
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -47.7% -52.6% 41% 12% -18.0%
≤30d 372 -29.9% -36.6% 60% 13% -12.0%
≤90d 372 -29.9% -36.6% 60% 13% -12.0%
all 372 -29.9% -36.6% 60% 13% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 13% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 5% -20.4%
15% -48.2% 3% -28.1%
20% -53.3% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses222 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)372 / 272
History coverage21d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day156.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? No 92¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 30 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records