Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5832…f585 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,698 (-19%) realized −$1,705 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$160
14 days+$160
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,038
other 17% +$388
politics 2% +$26
world 2% +$43
crypto 1% −$45
tech 0% −$26
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.1% +38.5% 50% 50% +84.8%
≤30d 3 +94.7% +76.1% 67% 67% +92.5%
≤90d 3 +94.7% +76.1% 67% 67% +92.5%
all 104 -21.4% -28.8% 27% 27% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 27% -28.6%
10% -35.7% 26% -35.4%
15% -41.9% 26% -41.7%
20% -47.6% 26% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +113% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$66 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized−$1,705
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)104 / 111
History coverage240d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $600 $587 −$13 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 68¢ $50 $89 +$39 (+78%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$210 +206%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 04 $20 +$36 +178%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 03 $10 +$14 +136%
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by March Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 03 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 03 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 03 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 03 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX - Game 2 Winner Feb 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: ULF Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 03 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 03 $159 −$159 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Feb 03 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 03 $428 −$237 -55%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Karmine Corp Blue Stars (BO1) - LFL Invitational Feb 03 $383 −$383 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seas Feb 03 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 03 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 03 $440 −$440 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $100 +$100 +100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $326 +$353 +108%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 24 $40 +$78 +194%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 23 $40 −$8 -21%
Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus? Jan 23 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jan 23 $60 −$11 -18%
LoL: DRX vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: DRX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jan 21 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jan 21 $100 +$275 +274%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
GPT ads by December 31? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO1) Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Jan 21 $159 +$141 +89%
LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1) Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Jan 21 $120 +$72 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $51 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 20d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In BUY Nongshim Red Force 36¢ $10 137d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In BUY Nongshim Red Force 20¢ $10 137d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In BUY Nongshim Red Force 34¢ $20 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $24 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 141d
LoL: Fnatic vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY GIANTX 54¢ $72 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seas BUY Karmine Corp Blue 13¢ $100 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seas BUY Karmine Corp Blue 15¢ $20 150d
LoL: Team Heretics vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Team Heretics 34¢ $100 150d
LoL: Team Heretics vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $200 150d
LoL: Team Heretics vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Team Heretics 68¢ $100 150d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Shifters 24¢ $50 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seas BUY Karmine Corp Blue 15¢ $50 150d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Shifters 47¢ $100 150d
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $100 150d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY BNK FEARX 18¢ $40 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 10¢ $40 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 27¢ $100 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 47¢ $100 150d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 43¢ $100 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.45 · official $872.45 (match) · 312 history records