Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5833…a634 sports 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-4%) realized −$64 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%75W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$115
14 days+$28
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$41
crypto 31% −$200
other 4% −$33
world 3% −$54
politics 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -78.1% -80.2% 11% 11% -76.7%
≤30d 107 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 39% -25.4%
≤90d 129 -18.9% -26.7% 43% 43% -16.1%
all 169 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 43% -16.6%
10% -32.1% 38% -24.5%
15% -38.7% 33% -31.8%
20% -44.7% 27% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses75 / 94
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)169 / 172
History coverage159d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 24¢ 48¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+102%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 35¢ 26¢ $45 $34 −$11 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 +$18 +180%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 +$33 +130%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will GamerLegion qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$22 +74%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$28 +140%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $35 +$24 +67%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $20 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $30 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $20 +$7 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $40 +$28 +68%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$10 -49%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $116 −$111 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 31 $29 −$28 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $46 9m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 49¢ $20 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $31 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 19¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 9¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 19¢ $5 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 2¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 47¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 81¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 22¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 39¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 75¢ $50 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $30 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 82¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 43¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.78 · official $74.78 (match) · 418 history records