Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x5833…4893 sports 857 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,420 (-2%) realized −$3,482 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%668W / 187L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$437est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days−$2
14 days+$101
30 days−$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,676
sports 43% −$2,070
crypto 4% −$500
politics 4% +$1,058
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% −$198
culture 0% −$154
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.4% +1.7% 86% 79% -9.7%
≤30d 87 -1.7% -11.0% 76% 61% -15.5%
≤90d 384 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 46% -12.7%
all 855 -2.7% -12.0% 78% 40% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -11.8%
10% -20.4% 21% -20.2%
15% -28.1% 11% -27.9%
20% -35.2% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$102 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$3,482
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses668 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$437
Open positions2
Markets (closed)855 / 857
History coverage277d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 855 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 100¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $151 +$44 +29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $121 +$25 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $99 +$19 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $161 +$39 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $75 +$25 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$43 +43%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $98 −$96 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $355 −$260 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $112 +$18 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $104 +$46 +45%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$50 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $98 +$17 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 11 $106 +$14 +14%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $182 +$18 +10%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5) Jun 10 $163 +$37 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 +$166 +109%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $148 −$148 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $13 +$8 +66%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 25% and 30% of votes in the Jun 05 $203 +$27 +13%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 04 $742 +$184 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $145 −$144 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 03 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $1,073 +$395 +37%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $136 −$136 -100%
Spread: CDPJuniorFC (-1.5) Jun 03 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $289 +$10 +4%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $50 +$15 +31%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1,852 +$91 +5%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $375 +$62 +16%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $301 +$209 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $181 +$219 +121%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 3.5 May 29 $173 +$47 +27%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $169 +$31 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $104 −$102 -98%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $108 +$72 +67%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 27 $776 −$707 -91%
Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5) May 27 $85 +$15 +17%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 27 $63 +$48 +75%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $142 −$142 -100%
Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca: O/U 1.5 May 27 $85 +$15 +17%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $140 −$140 -100%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 26 $1,880 −$888 -47%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 26 $194 +$6 +3%
Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5) May 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 77¢ $151 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $121 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $41 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $6 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $6 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $11 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $6 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $5 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $11 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $8 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $6 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $161 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $75 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $99 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $98 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 22¢ $95 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $250 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $60 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $130 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $70 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $11 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $34 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.94 · official $263.33 (match) · 2431 history records