Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5834…7b47 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$20
politics 32% −$17
sports 12% −$55
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 142 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage133d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $419 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $194 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 19 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $833 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $634 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $450 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $413 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $240 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $886 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $448 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $414 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 23h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 23h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $191 21d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $191 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 27d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 29d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $254 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 30d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $195 30d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $195 32d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $230 32d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $230 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $186 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $186 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records