Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5838…367c politics 604 markets active 0h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$861 (+6%) realized +$475 · open +$386
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%302W / 269L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$34
14 days+$52
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$495
other 19% +$60
world 17% −$351
culture 8% +$118
tech 6% −$79
economics 6% +$458
crypto 5% +$45
sports 5% −$13
finance 1% +$25
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +8.8% -1.5% 59% 47% -0.6%
≤30d 49 +11.7% +1.1% 65% 47% +2.1%
≤90d 124 -14.9% -23.0% 48% 31% -15.9%
all 571 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 38% -7.1%
10% -21.3% 29% -16.0%
15% -28.9% 22% -24.1%
20% -35.9% 15% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$1,499
Realized+$475
Unrealized+$386
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses302 / 269
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions32
Markets (closed)571 / 604
History coverage544d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $142 $158 +$17 (+12%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 17¢ 77¢ $35 $158 +$123 (+352%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $74 $122 +$48 (+65%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $74 $117 +$44 (+59%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $59 $96 +$38 (+64%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 38¢ 89¢ $35 $82 +$46 (+131%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 60¢ 67¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 51¢ 67¢ $51 $67 +$16 (+31%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $48 $56 +$8 (+17%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+44%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 84¢ 99¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+18%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 78¢ 94¢ $30 $35 +$6 (+20%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $28 $35 +$6 (+22%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 30¢ 33¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $22 +$10 (+74%)
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? No 90¢ 98¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 87¢ 81¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-2%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 64¢ 86¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$8 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$17 +170%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $62 +$4 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +25%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -16%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $42 +$18 +41%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $26 −$12 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $18 +$2 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $30 +$10 +32%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 28 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 23 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Bob Brooks be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? May 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $11 +$10 +89%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $11 +$10 +89%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? May 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 18 $2 −$2 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 71¢ $5 10m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $42 11h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $5 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 36h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 53¢ $7 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,499.44 · official $1,499.46 (match) · 2773 history records