Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5838…2100 other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-8%) realized −$32 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$14
14 days+$12
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$60
sports 45% +$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +56.7% +41.8% 31% 31% +7.6%
≤30d 35 +35.7% +22.8% 34% 29% -9.0%
≤90d 115 -11.0% -19.5% 24% 23% -20.9%
all 118 -8.2% -17.0% 26% 24% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 24% -19.1%
10% -24.9% 22% -26.8%
15% -32.2% 22% -33.9%
20% -38.8% 21% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 87
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions25
Markets (closed)118 / 143
History coverage144d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+53%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-49%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1372%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $10 +$33 +325%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $5 +$7 +134%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $5 +$8 +152%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Selangor Red Giants (BO5) Jun 05 $5 −$1 -17%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Bigetron MY by VIT (B Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MP May 31 $6 −$1 -15%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs RRQ Tora (BO5) - MPL Malaysia May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$7 +712%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Natus Vincere vs Geek Fam ID (BO3) - MPL Ind May 24 $4 $0 -9%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 $0 +14%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$2 +63%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Rey (BO3) - MPL May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs ONIC (BO3) - MPL Ind May 23 $4 $0 +8%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Team Liquid ID (BO3) - MPL In May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Dewa United Esports (BO3) - MPL May 22 $4 −$1 -28%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MPL Indonesia May 22 $4 −$1 -24%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs EVOS (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular S May 22 $6 −$2 -28%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Dewa United Esports May 22 $4 +$5 +112%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO3) - MP May 17 $5 +$8 +150%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO3) - MPL Philip May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indon May 17 $8 −$4 -45%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Aura Farmers (BO3) - MLBB Con May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs EVOS (BO3) - MPL Indo May 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron MY by VIT vs AC Esports (BO3) - MPL May 15 $3 +$4 +139%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Flash vs Selangor Red Giants (BO3) - MP May 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Flash vs RRQ Tora (BO3) - MPL Malaysia May 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MPL Indo May 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs ONIC (BO3) - MPL Indo May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 22h
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 22h
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 23¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - BUY Geek Fam ID 37¢ $12 4d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Team Liquid ID 34¢ $5 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl BUY Geek Fam ID 21¢ $4 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.91 · official $121.25 (match) · 270 history records