Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5839…2fc4 world 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-8%) realized −$222 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%50W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$218
14 days−$227
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$108
other 17% +$19
crypto 17% −$25
finance 8% −$6
sports 7% −$74
politics 3% −$41
culture 1% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -71.3% -74.0% 7% 7% -60.2%
≤30d 40 -46.2% -51.4% 20% 15% -37.5%
≤90d 83 -17.7% -25.5% 33% 22% -21.3%
all 133 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 29% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 29% -17.6%
10% -27.1% 20% -25.5%
15% -34.1% 18% -32.7%
20% -40.6% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses50 / 83
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)133 / 140
History coverage117d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 58¢ $26 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 8¢ 9¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $14 $7 −$6 (-47%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 28 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $41 +$18 +44%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$6 -58%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $32 +$18 +57%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $17 −$5 -29%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$7 +136%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $30 −$18 -61%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $12 −$4 -29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $50 −$15 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$12 +48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$12 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$3 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $7 −$1 -16%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? May 26 $22 +$19 +87%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $7 −$4 -51%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 09 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 07 $11 −$7 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $3 +$12 +406%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 28 $25 +$14 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 13h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $6 23h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $6 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 45h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $0 45h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $4 45h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $26 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 62¢ $32 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 4d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $4 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $7 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $0 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $8 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $12 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 16¢ $12 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 42¢ $30 11d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 11d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $17 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.03 · official $98.28 (match) · 356 history records