Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x583b…fe5d world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$3
other 8% $0
sports 2% −$12
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 31 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 37 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.2% 5% -18.5%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage524d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $77 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $47 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $131 +$5 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $15 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $165 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $90 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $87 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $109 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $92 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $9 $0 +2%
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Feb 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Utah Tech vs. Southern Utah Feb 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Feb 03 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Trump attend the launch? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 19 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $48 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $18 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $54 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $9 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $39 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $48 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $52 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.03 · official $46.82 (match) · 200 history records